| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.8% | 48% | -0.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.2% | 79% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.9% | 65% | -4.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 59% | +0.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 28.5% | 23.5% | 47.9% |
| xgboost | 28.3% | 24.6% | 47.1% |
| logistic | 37.5% | 29.4% | 33.1% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | Luton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1500 | 1563 |
| Surface Elo | 1500 | 1563 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.13 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Reading | 1 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Reading | 1 - 5 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Brentford | 7 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Crawley Town | 4 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | AFC Wimbledon | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Wycombe | 4 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Wycombe | 4 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Colchester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Ipswich Town U21 | 6 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Bradford | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.86 | 53.8% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.50 | 28.6% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.60 | 62.5% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 17 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.33 | 30.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.68 | 59.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |