| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.9% | 44% | +4.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.5% | 75% | +0.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.5% | 62% | +2.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 55% | +1.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.4% | 27.5% | 33.0% |
| xgboost | 50.7% | 26.1% | 23.2% |
| logistic | 49.9% | 26.8% | 23.3% |
| Mantova | Cremonese | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1502 | 1452 |
| Surface Elo | 1502 | 1452 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Virtus Entella | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Virtus Entella | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Palermo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Palermo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 3 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Juve Stabia | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Juve Stabia | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Pisa | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Pisa | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Arezzo | 0 - 0 | D |
| 25 Apr 2025 | Cremonese | 4 - 2 | Mantova |
| 09 Nov 2024 | Mantova | 1 - 0 | Cremonese |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.25 | 30.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.96 | 51.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.82 | 54.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |