| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.9% | 69% | -5.1% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.5% | 90% | -7.5% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 78.0% | 86% | -7.7% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.6% | 72% | -10.9% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.4% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.3% | 22.6% | 20.2% |
| xgboost | 71.9% | 14.5% | 13.6% |
| logistic | 63.4% | 20.2% | 16.4% |
| Carlisle | Boston Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1568 | 1418 |
| Surface Elo | 1568 | 1418 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.38 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 2.13 |
| Rest days | 14 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Nov | H | Salford | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Altrincham | 4 - 2 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Altrincham | 4 - 2 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Harrogate | 3 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Harrogate | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Leicester | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Scunthorpe | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Scunthorpe | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Gateshead | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Gateshead | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Carlisle | 6 - 2 | Boston Utd |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Boston Utd | 1 - 2 | Carlisle |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.60 | 17.9% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.75 | 21.1% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.45 | 69.0% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.38 | 72.5% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 12 Nov 06:15 |