OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-09

NFL · Friday 09 October 2026, 00:15 UTC · finished

Dallas Cowboys – 16 - 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	62.6%	no line		✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	62.6%	37.4%

Inputs the models saw

	Dallas Cowboys	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.12
form diff	0.25
rest diff	0.00
home field	1.00
point diff	0.00
opponent strength diff	0.02
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-08T00:15:00+00:00

Dallas Cowboys: last 5

04 Oct	A	Houston Texans	34 - 30	W
27 Sep	H	Baltimore Ravens	31 - 34	L
20 Sep	H	Washington Commanders	37 - 20	W
14 Sep	A	New York Giants	20 - 28	L
04 Jan	A	New York Giants	17 - 34	L

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: last 5

04 Oct	H	Green Bay Packers	14 - 17	L
27 Sep	H	Minnesota Vikings	16 - 23	L
20 Sep	H	Cleveland Browns	19 - 23	L
13 Sep	A	Cincinnati Bengals	27 - 33	L
03 Jan	H	Carolina Panthers	16 - 14	W

Head to head

23 Dec 2024	Dallas Cowboys	26 - 24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17 Jan 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14 - 31	Dallas Cowboys
12 Sep 2022	Dallas Cowboys	3 - 19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10 Sep 2021	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	31 - 29	Dallas Cowboys
23 Dec 2018	Dallas Cowboys	27 - 20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19 Dec 2016	Dallas Cowboys	26 - 20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15 Nov 2015	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10 - 6	Dallas Cowboys
23 Sep 2012	Dallas Cowboys	16 - 10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
18 Dec 2011	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15 - 31	Dallas Cowboys
13 Sep 2009	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21 - 34	Dallas Cowboys

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.21	82.6%	08 Oct 19:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	4.90	20.4%	08 Oct 19:20

Generated 2026-10-30 17:04 UTC