| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.2% | 36% | +12.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.3% | 77% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.3% | 49% | +12.7% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.5% | 60% | -8.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.6% | 25.4% | 32.0% |
| xgboost | 34.0% | 32.2% | 33.8% |
| logistic | 39.6% | 28.9% | 31.6% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | Reading | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1519 | 1516 |
| Surface Elo | 1519 | 1516 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 22 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Brentford | 7 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Crawley Town | 4 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | AFC Wimbledon | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Peterboro | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Wycombe | 3 - 3 | D |
| 09 Oct | H | Norwich | 2 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Bradford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Bradford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Wycombe | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Wycombe | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |