| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 77.8% | 81% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 24.5% | 75.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 18.0% | 82.0% |
| logistic | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| Alejo Sanchez Quilez | Jacob Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1514 | 1778 |
| Surface Elo | 1514 | 1778 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 27 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Fausto Tabacco | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Alexander Donski | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Oriol Roca Batalla | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Mark Lajal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 1 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Sep | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Martin Landaluce | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | Taro Daniel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 2 | Jacob Fearnley |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.24 | 80.7% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.85 | 26.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |