| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 45.6% | 41% | +4.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.6% | 75% | -1.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.2% | 57% | +3.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.0% | 58% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 29.3% | 29.8% | 40.9% |
| xgboost | 28.0% | 24.0% | 48.0% |
| logistic | 28.3% | 28.1% | 43.6% |
| Virtus Entella | Modena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1376 | 1488 |
| Surface Elo | 1376 | 1488 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 31 Oct | A | Sampdoria | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Sampdoria Genoa | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Cittadella | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Avellino | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 Oct | H | Avellino | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Mantova | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Mantova | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 Oct | A | L.R. Vicenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Vicenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Cesena | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Mar 2026 | Virtus Entella | 2 - 1 | Modena |
| 05 Oct 2025 | Modena | 2 - 0 | Virtus Entella |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.71 | 58.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |