| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.7% | 71% | -14.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.1% | 90% | -7.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 76.3% | 87% | -10.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 40% | +11.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.8% | 26.4% | 20.8% |
| xgboost | 60.1% | 23.4% | 16.5% |
| logistic | 59.7% | 25.1% | 15.2% |
| Leicester | Wigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1487 | 1408 |
| Surface Elo | 1487 | 1408 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Luton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Luton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Bromley | 4 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Bromley | 4 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Doncaster | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Oxford | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Oxford | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Reading | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.00 | 14.3% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.20 | 19.2% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |