| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 72.0% | 93% | -20.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 93.7% | 6.3% |
| logistic | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| Miguel Tobon | Federico Zeballos | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1494 | 1295 |
| Surface Elo | 1494 | 1295 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Lucio Ratti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Bruno Fernandez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Nov | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Jun | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.90 | 14.5% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.08 | 92.6% | 25 Oct 06:15 |