| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.4% | 44% | +3.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.6% | 79% | -3.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.7% | 60% | +1.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 57% | +1.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.9% | 24.6% | 39.5% |
| xgboost | 43.6% | 26.9% | 29.5% |
| logistic | 46.7% | 28.4% | 24.9% |
| Mansfield | Oxford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1536 | 1533 |
| Surface Elo | 1536 | 1533 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 1.14 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bromley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Bromley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Burton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Burton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Notts County | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Notts County | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Exeter | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 15 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 15 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 15 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 15 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 15 Oct 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 15 Oct 06:15 |