OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-28
⚽ Netherlands KNVB beker · Wednesday 28 October 2026, 20:00 UTC · finished
Excelsior 0.20 0 - 2 2.00 Heerenveen
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 44.5%81%-36.1%✓ hit
DCDraw or away 73.2%96%-22.6%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 59.4%94%-34.8%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 52.1%33%+18.8%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 53.4%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson37.3%24.8%37.8%
xgboost24.5%37.2%38.3%
logistic26.0%28.2%45.8%
Inputs the models saw
ExcelsiorHeerenveen
Elo (pre-match)14811590
Surface Elo14811590
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.202.00
Form trend0.10-0.40
Season points per game2.001.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game0.501.50
Rest days34
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W5 W · 2 D
Excelsior: last 5
28 OctAMVV Maastricht3 - 0W
27 OctHDen Haag1 - 1D
25 OctAFortuna Sittard0 - 1L
25 OctAFor Sittard0 - 1L
16 OctAHeerenveen0 - 4L
Heerenveen: last 5
24 OctADen Haag3 - 2W
24 OctADen Haag3 - 2W
16 OctHExcelsior4 - 0W
16 OctHExcelsior4 - 0W
09 OctAPSV Eindhoven0 - 2L
Head to head
16 Oct 2026Heerenveen4 - 0Excelsior
16 Oct 2026Heerenveen4 - 0Excelsior
07 Mar 2026Excelsior1 - 2Heerenveen
04 Oct 2025Heerenveen2 - 1Excelsior
19 Jan 2024Excelsior3 - 0Heerenveen
23 Sep 2023Heerenveen0 - 3Excelsior
13 May 2023Heerenveen0 - 0Excelsior
05 Nov 2022Excelsior0 - 1Heerenveen
30 Mar 2019Heerenveen1 - 0Excelsior
22 Sep 2018Excelsior3 - 3Heerenveen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.2480.7%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw6.6015.2%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home10.509.5%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.3773.0%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.0033.3%28 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC