| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.8% | 44% | +7.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| logistic | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Mili Poljicak | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1599 | 1545 |
| Surface Elo | 1599 | 1545 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Francesco Maestrelli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Max Hans Rehberg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Patrick Brady | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Henrique Rocha | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Max Basing | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maxim Mrva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Mili Poljicak | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Oliver Tarvet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Oliver Tarvet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 0 | Mili Poljicak |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.61 | 62.1% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |