| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.9% | 59% | -3.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 66.2% | 33.7% |
| logistic | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Abdullah Shelbayh | David Jorda Sanchis | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1631 | 1646 |
| Surface Elo | 1631 | 1646 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Daniil Glinka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Damir Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | David Jorda Sanchis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Dylan Dietrich | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Mitchell Krueger | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Daniel Rincon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Goncalo Marques | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Jesper De Jong | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Abdullah Shelbayh | 2 - 0 | David Jorda Sanchis |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.63 | 61.4% | 07 Oct 06:15 |