| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.3% | 64% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 65.9% | 34.0% |
| logistic | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Arthur Gea | Jaime Faria | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1824 | 1807 |
| Surface Elo | 1824 | 1807 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Oct | H | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Zhizhen Zhang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Zhizhen Zhang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Arthur Gea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | H | Jaume Munar | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Dillon Beckles | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Shintaro Mochizuki | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Hugo Gaston | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct 2026 | Arthur Gea | 2 - 1 | Jaime Faria |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.56 | 64.1% | 06 Oct 06:15 |