OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-27

🎾 ATP Basel, Switzerland Men Singles · Tuesday 27 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Ben Shelton 1.20 2 - 1 0.60 Aleksandar Kovacevic

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	75.5%	85%	-9.2%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	79.0%	21.0%
poisson	37.0%	35.2%
xgboost	74.8%	25.1%
logistic	81.4%	18.6%

Inputs the models saw

	Ben Shelton	Aleksandar Kovacevic
Elo (pre-match)	2027	1658
Surface Elo	2027	1658
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.20	0.60
Form trend	0.30	-0.30
Season points per game	1.50	0.60
Season goals for / game	1.00	0.80
Season goals against / game	1.00	1.60
Rest days	16	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	3 W	2 W · 0 D

Ben Shelton: last 5

11 Oct	H	Arthur Gea	0 - 2	L
11 Oct	A	Arthur Gea	0 - 2	L
09 Oct	H	Daniel Altmaier	2 - 0	W
09 Oct	H	Daniel Altmaier	2 - 0	W
13 Sep	A	Alexander Zverev	1 - 3	L

Aleksandar Kovacevic: last 5

25 Oct	A	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	0 - 2	L
24 Oct	H	James Duckworth	2 - 0	W
20 Oct	A	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1 - 2	L
20 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1 - 2	L
07 Oct	H	Matteo Berrettini	1 - 2	L

Head to head

14 Nov 2022	Aleksandar Kovacevic	1 - 2	Ben Shelton
07 Nov 2022	Aleksandar Kovacevic	0 - 2	Ben Shelton
18 Jul 2022	Aleksandar Kovacevic	2 - 0	Ben Shelton
11 Jul 2022	Aleksandar Kovacevic	0 - 2	Ben Shelton
19 Jul 2021	Aleksandar Kovacevic	2 - 0	Ben Shelton

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	5.30	18.9%	26 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.18	84.8%	26 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:03 UTC