| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.1% | 54% | -2.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 61.9% | 38.0% |
| logistic | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | Leylah Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1697 | 1747 |
| Surface Elo | 1697 | 1747 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Leylah Fernandez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Mirra Andreeva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Linda Noskova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Diana Shnaider | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jelena Ostapenko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Han Shi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 06 Jan 2025 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 1 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 28 Aug 2023 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 1 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 15 Aug 2022 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 0 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 03 Jan 2022 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 0 - 2 | Leylah Fernandez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |