| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.7% | 77% | -9.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| logistic | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Moez Echargui | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1561 | 1456 |
| Surface Elo | 1561 | 1456 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 14 | 28 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Daniel Masur | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Luca Potenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Titouan Droguet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | Thomas Fancutt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Jun | A | Andre Ilagan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Jun | A | Maxim Zhukov | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.30 | 30.3% | 21 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.30 | 76.9% | 21 Sep 06:15 |