| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.1% | 34% | +18.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.2% | 69% | +10.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.6% | 49% | +20.5% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 67% | -14.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.2% | 32.3% | 24.5% |
| xgboost | 46.2% | 29.7% | 24.1% |
| logistic | 55.2% | 31.3% | 13.5% |
| Getafe | Numancia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1602 | 1420 |
| Surface Elo | 1602 | 1420 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 13 | 2266 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | H | Malaga | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | CF Talavera de La Reina | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Sep | A | Betis | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | La Coruna | 1 - 1 | D |
| 07 Sep | H | Celta | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | UD San Sebastian Reyes | 0 - 0 | D |
| 20 Jul | H | Tenerife | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Jul | A | Huesca | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Jul | H | Ponferradina | 1 - 0 | W |
| 09 Jul | A | Vallecano | 2 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 2.85 | 35.1% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.95 | 33.9% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.40 | 41.7% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.49 | 67.1% | 04 Oct 06:15 |