| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.1% | 56% | -7.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.8% | 84% | -7.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.9% | 73% | -11.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 74% | -21.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.8% | 23.8% | 33.4% |
| xgboost | 40.7% | 26.4% | 32.8% |
| logistic | 39.3% | 28.7% | 32.1% |
| Fylde | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1403 | 1420 |
| Surface Elo | 1403 | 1420 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 7 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Southend | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Southend | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Carlisle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Carlisle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Boston Utd | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Barrow | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Barrow | 0 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Hartlepool | 4 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Hartlepool | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Hornchurch | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.77 | 56.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.35 | 74.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.00 | 33.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |