| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 45.9% | 41% | +5.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.2% | 76% | +0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 57.8% | 55% | +2.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 44% | +11.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.4% | 24.2% | 33.5% |
| xgboost | 41.7% | 25.5% | 32.9% |
| logistic | 41.6% | 28.2% | 30.2% |
| Santander | Espanol | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1571 | 1544 |
| Surface Elo | 1571 | 1544 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Osasuna | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Osasuna | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Valencia | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Valencia | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Celta | 0 - 5 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Atlético Madrid | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Atlético Madrid | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Malaga | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | A | Malaga | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Sep | H | Elche | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Santander | 2 - 0 | Espanol |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Espanol | 2 - 0 | Santander |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.88 | 34.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.74 | 26.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.47 | 40.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.63 | 61.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |