| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.4% | 59% | +4.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 85.8% | 81% | +4.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 76.7% | 75% | +1.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 70% | -9.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 26.7% | 28.8% | 44.5% |
| xgboost | 28.6% | 19.0% | 52.4% |
| logistic | 27.6% | 28.0% | 44.4% |
| Paderborn | Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1535 | 1650 |
| Surface Elo | 1535 | 1650 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| Rest days | 8 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Freiburg | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Mainz | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 May | A | Darmstadt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 May | H | Karlsruhe | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | SV Meppen 1912 | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Stuttgart | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | FC Koln | 2 - 3 | L |
| 16 May | A | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 - 4 | L |
| 23 May 2020 | Paderborn | 1 - 1 | Hoffenheim |
| 01 Nov 2019 | Hoffenheim | 3 - 0 | Paderborn |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.80 | 55.6% | 20 Sep 18:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 20 Sep 18:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.90 | 25.6% | 20 Sep 18:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.36 | 73.5% | 20 Sep 18:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.20 | 31.2% | 20 Sep 18:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.74 | 57.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.49 | 22.3% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 20 Sep 06:16 |