| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 78.0% | 85% | -7.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 81.5% | 18.4% |
| logistic | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Henry Bernet | Thijs Boogaard | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1674 | 1487 |
| Surface Elo | 1674 | 1487 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Clement Tabur | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Maximilian Neuchrist | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | H | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Dominic Stricker | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Trufelli, Timeo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Philip Henning | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Alberto Barroso Campos | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Lucas Renard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Jul | A | Jan Kumstat | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.65 | 21.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.17 | 85.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |