| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.3% | 35% | +17.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| logistic | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| Guido Ivan Justo | Francisco Comesana | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1730 | 1628 |
| Surface Elo | 1730 | 1628 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.57 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.57 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.57 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Francisco Comesana | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Juan Estevez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Juan Estevez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Francisco Comesana | 1 - 2 | Guido Ivan Justo |
| 03 Jul 2023 | Francisco Comesana | 2 - 0 | Guido Ivan Justo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.44 | 69.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 06 Oct 06:15 |