| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.0% | 78% | -14.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 73.2% | 26.7% |
| logistic | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| Gustavo Heide | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1709 | 1616 |
| Surface Elo | 1709 | 1616 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.13 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Alex Hernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Alex Hernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Daniel Elahi Galan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Daniel Elahi Galan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | Juan Pablo Varillas |
| 18 Mar 2024 | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | Juan Pablo Varillas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.45 | 29.0% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.28 | 78.1% | 21 Oct 06:15 |