| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.6% | 72% | -8.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 64.2% | 35.7% |
| logistic | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| Grigor Dimitrov | Edas Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1772 | 1652 |
| Surface Elo | 1772 | 1652 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 22 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Alexei Popyrin | 1 - 3 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | Sebastian Baez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jul | H | Nuno Borges | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Jul | A | Dalibor Svrcina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Harold Mayot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Grigor Dimitrov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Max Basing | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Gabriel Ghetu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 0 | Grigor Dimitrov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 22 Sep 06:15 |