| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.9% | 63% | -10.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.0% | 32.2% |
| xgboost | 64.2% | 34.9% |
| logistic | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| Ottawa Senators | Philadelphia Flyers | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1540 | 1498 |
| Surface Elo | 1540 | 1498 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.33 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.67 | 4.25 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Detroit Red Wings | 3 - 5 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Boston Bruins | 4 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3 - 2 | W |
| 25 Apr | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 4 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1 - 4 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | New Jersey Devils | 2 - 3 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Pittsburgh Penguins | 0 - 7 | L |
| 09 May | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 06 Feb 2026 | Philadelphia Flyers | 1 - 2 | Ottawa Senators |
| 08 Nov 2025 | Philadelphia Flyers | 2 - 3 | Ottawa Senators |
| 23 Oct 2025 | Ottawa Senators | 2 - 1 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Ottawa Senators | 4 - 3 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 11 Mar 2025 | Philadelphia Flyers | 2 - 5 | Ottawa Senators |
| 15 Nov 2024 | Ottawa Senators | 4 - 5 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.58 | 63.3% | 08 Oct 19:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 08 Oct 19:20 |