| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.7% | 53% | -4.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.9% | 45.8% |
| xgboost | 61.7% | 36.4% |
| logistic | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Buffalo Sabres | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1398 | 1559 |
| Surface Elo | 1398 | 1559 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.43 | 2.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.29 | 3.71 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 14 Oct | A | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 4 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Colorado Avalanche | 6 - 3 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Vegas Golden Knights | 3 - 4 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Nashville Predators | 5 - 4 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Ottawa Senators | 2 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Montréal Canadiens | 3 - 4 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Florida Panthers | 5 - 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 1 - 4 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Dallas Stars | 0 - 4 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Minnesota Wild | 3 - 2 | W |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Buffalo Sabres | 3 - 2 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 28 Jan 2026 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 - 7 | Buffalo Sabres |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 - 3 | Buffalo Sabres |
| 24 Oct 2025 | Buffalo Sabres | 5 - 3 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 15 Apr 2025 | Buffalo Sabres | 0 - 4 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Buffalo Sabres | 3 - 6 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 5 - 3 | Buffalo Sabres |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.88 | 53.2% | 15 Oct 19:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.04 | 49.0% | 15 Oct 19:20 |