OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-18
⚽ Eredivisie · Sunday 18 October 2026, 14:45 UTC · finished
Groningen 1.60 2 - 5 1.60 Ajax
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 51.1%52%-0.4%✓ hit
DCDraw or away 77.9%76%+1.9%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 67.8%67%+0.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 64.7%72%-7.8%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 63.7%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson27.1%25.6%47.4%
xgboost25.3%27.9%46.8%
logistic19.1%24.7%56.2%
Inputs the models saw
GroningenAjax
Elo (pre-match)15691669
Surface Elo15691669
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.601.60
Form trend-0.800.00
Season points per game1.751.88
Season goals for / game2.502.75
Season goals against / game1.751.25
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W7 W · 1 D
Groningen: last 5
11 OctAExcelsior5 - 1W
11 OctAExcelsior5 - 1W
18 SepHZwolle3 - 0W
12 SepAGo Ahead Eagles1 - 1D
06 SepHTwente2 - 2D
Ajax: last 5
15 OctAHNK Hajduk Split1 - 2L
10 OctHNijmegen1 - 1D
10 OctHNijmegen1 - 1D
19 SepHExcelsior2 - 2D
19 SepHExcelsior2 - 2D
Head to head
07 Mar 2026Groningen3 - 1Ajax
02 Dec 2025Ajax2 - 0Groningen
14 May 2025Groningen2 - 2Ajax
06 Oct 2024Ajax3 - 1Groningen
14 May 2023Groningen2 - 3Ajax
14 Aug 2022Ajax6 - 1Groningen
02 Apr 2022Groningen1 - 3Ajax
25 Sep 2021Ajax3 - 0Groningen
07 Mar 2021Ajax3 - 1Groningen
04 Oct 2020Groningen1 - 0Ajax
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away1.9551.3%18 Oct 15:45
Bet3651X2draw3.9025.6%18 Oct 15:45
Bet3651X2home3.5028.6%18 Oct 15:45
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.3673.5%18 Oct 15:45
Bet365O/U 2.5under3.1032.3%18 Oct 15:45
SportyBet1X2away1.9750.8%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.1923.9%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.5128.5%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4071.4%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.1032.3%18 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC