| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.5% | 20% | +24.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.1% | 79% | -4.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.4% | 26% | +29.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 60% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.8% | 26.0% | 37.1% |
| xgboost | 37.2% | 26.9% | 35.9% |
| logistic | 36.1% | 29.0% | 35.0% |
| Lincoln | West Ham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1662 | 1666 |
| Surface Elo | 1662 | 1666 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Swansea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Swansea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Bristol City | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Braintree Town | 4 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | QPR | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | H | QPR | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | A | Millwall | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Millwall | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.69 | 59.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.19 | 23.9% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.02 | 19.9% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.68 | 59.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |