| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.0% | 63% | -3.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 83.6% | 85% | -1.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 78.0% | 80% | -2.1% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 66% | -0.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 17.8% | 23.2% | 59.0% |
| xgboost | 13.4% | 14.6% | 72.0% |
| logistic | 17.9% | 22.0% | 60.2% |
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1546 | 1808 |
| Surface Elo | 1546 | 1808 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 8 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Elversberg | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Elversberg | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Bayern München | 0 - 7 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Schalke 04 | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 - 4 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Bodoe/Glimt | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Werder Bremen | 2 - 2 | D |
| 09 Oct | H | Werder Bremen | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Stuttgart | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Paderborn | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Union Berlin | 0 - 3 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 - 0 | Union Berlin |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 - 0 | Union Berlin |
| 05 Oct 2024 | Union Berlin | 2 - 1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 02 Mar 2024 | Union Berlin | 0 - 2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 07 Oct 2023 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 - 2 | Union Berlin |
| 08 Apr 2023 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 1 | Union Berlin |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Union Berlin | 2 - 0 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 13 Feb 2022 | Union Berlin | 0 - 3 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 19 Sep 2021 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 - 2 | Union Berlin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.48 | 67.6% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 6.50 | 15.4% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.63 | 38.0% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.62 | 61.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.57 | 21.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.45 | 18.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.51 | 66.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |