| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.8% | 66% | -4.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 56.6% | 43.3% |
| logistic | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| Juan Manuel La Serna | Juan Bautista Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1683 | 1492 |
| Surface Elo | 1683 | 1492 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Juan Bautista Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Daniel Salazar Martinez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Daniel Salazar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Juan Bautista Torres | 0 - 2 | Juan Manuel La Serna |
| 11 May 2026 | Juan Bautista Torres | 0 - 2 | Juan Manuel La Serna |
| 12 Jan 2026 | Juan Bautista Torres | 1 - 2 | Juan Manuel La Serna |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 21 Oct 06:15 |