| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 76.6% | 80% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 87.1% | 12.8% |
| logistic | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| Luka Pavlovic | Thomas Fancutt | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1587 | 1402 |
| Surface Elo | 1587 | 1402 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 27 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Ilia Simakin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Akira Santillan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Lloyd Harris | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Akira Santillan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | A | Hunter Heck | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Marat Sharipov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Karl Poling | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Jul | A | Jie Cui | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Jun | A | Mathys Erhard | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.25 | 80.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |