| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.7% | 54% | -2.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 58.5% | 41.4% |
| logistic | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Marco Trungelliti | Francesco Passaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1728 | 1719 |
| Surface Elo | 1728 | 1719 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.63 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 1.88 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Milos Karol | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Tiago Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Francesco Passaro | 2 - 1 | Marco Trungelliti |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.88 | 53.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |