| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.8% | 58% | +5.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 71.6% | 28.3% |
| logistic | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| Daniil Glinka | Henry Bernet | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1655 | 1586 |
| Surface Elo | 1655 | 1586 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Henry Bernet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Dino Prizmic | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Ugo Blanchet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Daniel Jade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Dino Prizmic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Dominic Stricker | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Daniil Glinka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Samir Banerjee | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 2 | Henry Bernet |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.63 | 61.4% | 30 Sep 06:15 |