| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.3% | 38% | +22.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 83.5% | 77% | +6.8% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.2% | 53% | +17.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.8% | 56% | +3.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.3% | 27.1% | 34.6% |
| xgboost | 37.4% | 30.2% | 32.4% |
| logistic | 44.8% | 28.4% | 26.8% |
| Ceuta | Valladolid | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1443 | 1369 |
| Surface Elo | 1443 | 1369 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 8 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 11 Sep | A | Burgos | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Celta B | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Mallorca | 0 - 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Las Palmas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | Andorra | 1 - 5 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Oviedo | 0 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Andorra | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Cadiz | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Eibar | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | Mallorca | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Ceuta | 0 - 3 | Valladolid |
| 15 Aug 2025 | Valladolid | 3 - 0 | Ceuta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 20 Sep 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 20 Sep 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 20 Sep 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 20 Sep 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.65 | 60.6% | 20 Sep 15:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.74 | 57.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |