| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.3% | 57% | -2.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| logistic | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| Olle Wallin | Matthew William Donald | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1495 | 1499 |
| Surface Elo | 1495 | 1499 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 22 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Matthew William Donald | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Zdenek Kolar | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Johan Nikles | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | Carlos Taberner | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Dimitris Sakellaridis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Martin Krumich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Lorenzo Giustino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Olle Wallin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Matthew William Donald | 2 - 0 | Olle Wallin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |