| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.5% | 66% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 61.9% | 38.0% |
| logistic | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| Georgii Kravchenko | Alexander Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1488 | 1495 |
| Surface Elo | 1488 | 1495 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Hugo Grenier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Sergi Fita Juan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Goncalo Marques | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Aug | H | Takuya Kumasaka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Jul | H | Max Hans Rehberg | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 11 Oct 06:15 |