| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 43.6% | 34% | +9.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.0% | 76% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 54.5% | 47% | +7.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 52% | +4.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 18.3% | 25.1% | 56.6% |
| xgboost | 47.6% | 29.1% | 23.4% |
| logistic | 49.0% | 28.5% | 22.4% |
| Lincoln | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1645 | 1501 |
| Surface Elo | 1645 | 1501 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.09 | 0.73 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.82 | 1.45 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.73 | 1.91 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Millwall | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Millwall | 2 - 2 | D |
| 14 Oct | H | West Ham | 0 - 6 | L |
| 14 Oct | H | West Ham | 0 - 6 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 3 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Charlton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Oct | H | Charlton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Watford | 4 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.88 | 53.2% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.51 | 39.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.53 | 28.3% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.87 | 34.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.92 | 52.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.92 | 52.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |