OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-18
⚽ Germany Bundesliga · Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished
Bayer Leverkusen 2.00 2 - 1 2.60 Freiburg
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 54.7%57%-2.1%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 79.3%80%-0.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 71.3%73%-2.0%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 67.8%68%-0.3%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 66.9%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson60.8%20.5%18.7%
xgboost47.5%22.6%29.9%
logistic59.0%23.4%17.6%
Inputs the models saw
Bayer LeverkusenFreiburg
Elo (pre-match)17471676
Surface Elo17471676
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.002.60
Form trend-0.600.20
Season points per game3.003.00
Season goals for / game4.002.00
Season goals against / game3.001.00
Rest days86
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W2 W · 3 D
Bayer Leverkusen: last 5
15 OctAKKS Lech Poznan4 - 0W
10 OctAMainz4 - 3W
10 OctAMainz4 - 3W
20 SepHRB Leipzig2 - 0W
12 SepAAugsburg2 - 2D
Freiburg: last 5
15 OctHFK Jablonec3 - 2W
11 OctHSchalke 042 - 1W
11 OctHSchalke 042 - 1W
19 SepAEintracht Frankfurt2 - 2D
12 SepHBorussia Mönchengladbach5 - 0W
Head to head
07 Mar 2026Freiburg3 - 3Bayer Leverkusen
26 Oct 2025Bayer Leverkusen2 - 0Freiburg
04 May 2025Freiburg2 - 2Bayer Leverkusen
21 Dec 2024Bayer Leverkusen5 - 1Freiburg
17 Mar 2024Freiburg2 - 3Bayer Leverkusen
29 Oct 2023Bayer Leverkusen2 - 1Freiburg
26 Feb 2023Freiburg1 - 1Bayer Leverkusen
03 Sep 2022Bayer Leverkusen2 - 3Freiburg
14 May 2022Bayer Leverkusen2 - 1Freiburg
19 Dec 2021Freiburg2 - 1Bayer Leverkusen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.3523.0%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.3223.2%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.7656.8%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4768.0%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.7037.0%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC