| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.4% | 71% | -6.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 33.7% | 66.2% |
| logistic | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| Ryan Nijboer | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1528 | 1687 |
| Surface Elo | 1528 | 1687 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Oct | A | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Benjamin Hassan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Nico Hipfl | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Tiago Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Ryan Nijboer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Tiago Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Luka Mikrut | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 0 | Ryan Nijboer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.41 | 70.9% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 08 Oct 06:15 |