| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.8% | 66% | -3.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 70.7% | 29.2% |
| logistic | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Andrej Nedic | Filippo Romano | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1540 | 1503 |
| Surface Elo | 1540 | 1503 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Patrick Schoen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Patrick Schoen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Johan Nikles | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Andrej Nedic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Harry Wendelken | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Ryan Peniston | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Harry Wendelken | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Kenny De Schepper | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Andrej Nedic | 2 - 0 | Filippo Romano |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.54 | 64.9% | 13 Oct 06:15 |