| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.7% | 65% | -11.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.1% | 89% | -12.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.7% | 84% | -14.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 35% | +16.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.9% | 24.2% | 31.9% |
| xgboost | 54.9% | 22.0% | 23.1% |
| logistic | 57.0% | 26.0% | 17.0% |
| Leicester | Peterboro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1487 | 1384 |
| Surface Elo | 1487 | 1384 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 0.63 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.29 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.57 | 1.63 |
| Rest days | 21 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Stevenage | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Fulham | 6 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Barnsley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Barnsley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Stockport | 4 - 3 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Stockport | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Doncaster | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Sheffield Weds | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Stevenage | 0 - 0 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.33 | 75.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.40 | 29.4% | 10 Oct 15:00 |