| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.3% | 53% | -8.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.4% | 81% | -7.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 57.8% | 70% | -12.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.4% | 58% | +13.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 61.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.7% | 27.7% | 31.6% |
| xgboost | 37.1% | 25.4% | 37.5% |
| logistic | 29.8% | 28.3% | 41.9% |
| Hartlepool | Harrogate | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1405 | 1396 |
| Surface Elo | 1405 | 1396 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 4 W · 2 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Scunthorpe | 1 - 4 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Scunthorpe | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Worthing | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Worthing | 1 - 3 | L |
| 16 Sep | A | Altrincham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Eastleigh | 4 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Eastleigh | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 4 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Fylde | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Jan 2023 | Hartlepool | 3 - 3 | Harrogate |
| 15 Oct 2022 | Harrogate | 2 - 1 | Hartlepool |
| 05 Mar 2022 | Harrogate | 1 - 2 | Hartlepool |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Hartlepool | 3 - 2 | Harrogate |
| 01 Jan 2020 | Hartlepool | 0 - 1 | Harrogate |
| 26 Dec 2019 | Harrogate | 4 - 1 | Hartlepool |
| 19 Jan 2019 | Harrogate | 3 - 1 | Hartlepool |
| 07 Aug 2018 | Hartlepool | 2 - 2 | Harrogate |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.90 | 52.6% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.60 | 27.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 29 Sep 06:15 |