| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.7% | 31% | +11.4% | abandoned |
| DC | Home or away | 73.3% | 77% | -3.4% | abandoned |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 54.1% | 43% | +10.9% | abandoned |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 55% | +3.0% | abandoned |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.4% | no line | abandoned |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.1% | 27.7% | 37.2% |
| xgboost | 35.4% | 32.4% | 32.3% |
| logistic | 40.3% | 28.7% | 31.0% |
| Morton | Ayr | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1428 | 1479 |
| Surface Elo | 1428 | 1479 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 6 D |
| 17 Oct | H | Queens Park | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Queens Park | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Arbroath | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Arbroath | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Raith Rovers FC | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Partick | 0 - 1 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Partick | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Dunfermline | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Dunfermline | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Livingston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Ayr | 1 - 1 | Morton |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Ayr | 0 - 1 | Morton |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Morton | 1 - 1 | Ayr |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Ayr | 2 - 1 | Morton |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Morton | 2 - 2 | Ayr |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Morton | 2 - 1 | Ayr |
| 28 Dec 2024 | Ayr | 0 - 0 | Morton |
| 08 Nov 2024 | Morton | 1 - 1 | Ayr |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Ayr | 1 - 0 | Morton |
| 09 Apr 2024 | Ayr | 1 - 1 | Morton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.93 | 51.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.81 | 55.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |