| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.3% | 58% | -4.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| logistic | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Guido Ivan Justo | Franco Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1595 | 1568 |
| Surface Elo | 1595 | 1568 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Pedro Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Bruno Fernandez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Jul | H | Norbert Gombos | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Franco Roncadelli | 0 - 2 | Guido Ivan Justo |
| 11 May 2026 | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 0 | Guido Ivan Justo |
| 23 Mar 2026 | Franco Roncadelli | 0 - 1 | Guido Ivan Justo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 30 Sep 06:15 |