| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.6% | 41% | +7.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.0% | 76% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.6% | 56% | +6.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 65% | -7.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.9% | 25.8% | 39.3% |
| xgboost | 41.7% | 29.3% | 29.0% |
| logistic | 42.7% | 27.7% | 29.6% |
| Union Berlin | Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1531 | 1584 |
| Surface Elo | 1531 | 1584 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 21 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Sep | A | Bayern München | 0 - 7 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Schalke 04 | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 - 4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 - 3 | D |
| 16 May | H | Augsburg | 4 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Schalke 04 | 0 - 0 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Bayern München | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 - 3 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 May | H | Preußen Münster | 3 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.86 | 35.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.84 | 26.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.44 | 41.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.54 | 64.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |