| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.9% | 49% | +8.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 58.2% | 41.7% |
| logistic | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Gonzalo Villanueva | Nick Hardt | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1552 | 1546 |
| Surface Elo | 1552 | 1546 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 35 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Nick Hardt | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Mateus Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Marco Cecchinato | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Kai Wehnelt | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Oleksii Krutykh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 1 - 2 | Nick Hardt |
| 24 Apr 2023 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | Nick Hardt |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.87 | 53.5% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.87 | 53.5% | 05 Oct 06:15 |