| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.1% | 38% | +10.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.8% | 80% | -5.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.9% | 51% | +9.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 62% | -4.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 31.5% | 23.5% | 45.0% |
| xgboost | 38.5% | 33.5% | 28.0% |
| logistic | 45.7% | 27.2% | 27.1% |
| Tamworth | Barrow | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1438 | 1368 |
| Surface Elo | 1438 | 1368 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.33 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Leeds | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Sutton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Sutton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Wealdstone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Wealdstone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Scunthorpe | 3 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Scunthorpe | 3 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Southend | 4 - 2 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.55 | 39.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.63 | 61.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |