OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-12

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Monday 12 October 2026, 11:10 UTC · scheduled

Tommy Paul 1.20 11:10 1.80 Valentin Vacherot

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	62.0%	60%	+1.8%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	61.9%	38.0%
logistic	57.4%	42.6%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Tommy Paul	Valentin Vacherot
Elo (pre-match)	1973	1890
Surface Elo	1973	1890
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.20	1.80
Form trend	0.00	0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	0 W · 0 D

Tommy Paul: last 5

12 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	H	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2 - 0	W
30 Sep	A	Alejandro Tabilo	0 - 2	L
30 Sep	A	Alejandro Tabilo	0 - 2	L

Valentin Vacherot: last 5

12 Oct	A	Tommy Paul	0 - 2	L
10 Oct	A	Sebastian Baez	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Sebastian Baez	2 - 0	W
05 Oct	A	Jiri Lehecka	0 - 2	L
05 Oct	A	Jiri Lehecka	0 - 2	L

Head to head

12 Oct 2026

Tommy Paul

2 - 0

Valentin Vacherot

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.66	60.2%	12 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.27	44.0%	12 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.61	62.1%	12 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.30	43.5%	12 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.67	59.9%	12 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.20	45.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.69	59.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.42	41.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	1.70	58.8%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Valentin Vacherot	2.46	40.6%	12 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.62	61.7%	12 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.36	42.4%	12 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.65	60.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.26	44.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.64	61.0%	12 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.27	44.0%	12 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.68	59.5%	12 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.31	43.3%	12 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.65	60.6%	12 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.23	44.8%	12 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.64	61.0%	12 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.24	44.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.68	59.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.44	41.0%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	1.70	58.8%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Valentin Vacherot	2.46	40.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.65	60.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.26	44.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.67	59.9%	12 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.35	42.5%	12 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.57	63.7%	12 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.14	46.7%	12 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.30	43.5%	12 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.66	60.2%	12 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.57	63.7%	12 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.25	44.4%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.65	60.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.25	44.4%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.65	60.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.23	44.8%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.65	60.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.23	44.8%	12 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.62	61.7%	12 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.30	43.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.66	60.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.30	43.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.64	61.0%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Valentin Vacherot	2.25	44.4%	12 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:56 UTC