| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.6% | 58% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.3% | 82% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.2% | 75% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% | 65% | +4.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.0% | 25.5% | 24.5% |
| xgboost | 59.0% | 21.5% | 19.5% |
| logistic | 63.6% | 22.7% | 13.7% |
| Cardiff | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1537 | 1435 |
| Surface Elo | 1537 | 1435 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 4.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 4 W · 2 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Blackburn | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Blackburn | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Charlton | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Charlton | 3 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Bolton | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Burnley | 0 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Burnley | 0 - 4 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Bristol City | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Stoke | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Sep | H | Preston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Cardiff | 1 - 1 | Watford |
| 29 Dec 2024 | Watford | 1 - 2 | Cardiff |
| 03 Feb 2024 | Watford | 0 - 1 | Cardiff |
| 07 Oct 2023 | Cardiff | 1 - 1 | Watford |
| 19 Apr 2023 | Watford | 1 - 3 | Cardiff |
| 02 Nov 2022 | Cardiff | 1 - 2 | Watford |
| 13 Mar 2021 | Cardiff | 1 - 2 | Watford |
| 05 Dec 2020 | Watford | 0 - 1 | Cardiff |
| 22 Feb 2019 | Cardiff | 1 - 5 | Watford |
| 15 Dec 2018 | Watford | 3 - 2 | Cardiff |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.72 | 21.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.30 | 23.3% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |